Over 17 games last season Brevyn Spann-Ford averaged 0.5 receptions and 5 yards on 25% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
1.1
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
10
Anytime TD
11%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.1 projected
26 wk3
BAL
38%
2.5%
1
1
19
0
0.9 +0.1
26 wk2
WAS
38%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
NYG
22%
6.7%
2
2
14
0
—
25 wk18
NYG
31%
13.0%
3
2
30
0
—
25 wk17
WAS
52%
5.6%
2
1
31
0
—
25 wk16
LAC
19%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
MIN
30%
2.9%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
DET
16%
2.1%
1
1
7
0
—
25 wk13
KC
26%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk12
PHI
26%
2.9%
1
1
4
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 19
5%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
1.0
11.0
1.0
0
33%
3.1%
2025
17
0.5
5.3
0.8
1
25%
2.4%
2024
17
0.5
5.2
0.8
0
26%
2.0%
3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016