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BC

Britain Covey

Philadelphia Eagles · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 7 games last season Britain Covey averaged 0.3 receptions and 3 yards on 21% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.3
0.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
-0
Anytime TD
7%

What a realistic week looks like

76%017%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.3 projected
26 wk3CHI—0.0%00000.5 -0.5
26 wk2TEN—0.0%0000—
26 wk1WAS—0.0%0000—
25 wk19SF—0.0%0000—
25 wk18WAS55%11.8%42200—
25 wk17BUF—0.0%0000—
25 wk16WAS1%0.0%0000—
25 wk15LV6%0.0%0000—
25 wk14LAC—0.0%0000—
25 wk13CHI—0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 9 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 90%
5+ receptions0 of 90%
7+ receptions0 of 90%
50+ receiving yards0 of 90%
75+ receiving yards0 of 90%
100+ receiving yards0 of 90%
Scored a touchdown0 of 90%

Career by season

Britain Covey: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.00.00.000%0.0%
202570.32.90.6021%1.7%
202451.46.81.6014%5.9%
2023170.22.50.4010%1.1%
2022200.00.00.006%0.0%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Philadelphia Eagles roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4