Caleb Douglas has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 2 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
3.4
Receiving yards
41
Anytime TD
9%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.4 projected
26 wk2
SF
86%
13.0%
3
2
19
0
—
26 wk1
LV
91%
25.9%
7
5
94
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
Career by season
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
2
3.5
56.5
5.0
0
88%
19.5%
1 season of usage, 2026–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016