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Chris Manhertz

New York Giants · Tight endTE3

Over 17 games last season Chris Manhertz averaged 0.1 receptions and 0 yards on 18% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.5
0.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
2
Anytime TD
8%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

66%023%17%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.5 projected
26 wk3TEN44%0.0%00000.4 -0.4
26 wk2LA31%0.0%0000—
26 wk1DAL35%0.0%0000—
25 wk18DAL31%3.1%1000—
25 wk17LV23%0.0%0000—
25 wk16MIN46%0.0%0000—
25 wk15WAS6%0.0%0000—
25 wk13NE4%0.0%0000—
25 wk12DET34%0.0%0000—
25 wk11GB21%0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 190%
5+ receptions0 of 190%
7+ receptions0 of 190%
50+ receiving yards0 of 190%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown0 of 190%

Career by season

Chris Manhertz: snap share and target share by season02040608010020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.00.00.0037%0.0%
2025170.10.40.1018%0.4%
2024170.21.80.2131%0.9%
2023160.11.00.2036%0.9%
2022190.32.20.4036%1.3%
2021170.44.20.5136%1.6%
2020160.43.20.5048%1.6%
2019150.10.70.1033%0.2%
2018160.13.20.3132%1.0%
2017160.11.10.2027%0.9%
201650.22.00.2015%0.5%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New York Giants roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4