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Chris Moore

Baltimore Ravens · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 14 games last season Chris Moore averaged 0.8 receptions and 15 yards on 49% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.1
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
25
Anytime TD
14%
third-down role (+0.06)

What a realistic week looks like

40%031%117%28%345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————1.1 projected
26 wk3DAL52%5.0%11411.0 +0.0
26 wk2NO55%10.3%3160—
26 wk1IND37%8.3%21530—
25 wk18PHI33%0.0%0000—
25 wk17DAL18%4.8%11150—
25 wk16PHI22%0.0%0000—
25 wk13DEN28%0.0%0000—
25 wk11MIA82%17.2%52280—
25 wk10DET20%0.0%0000—
25 wk9SEA74%0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions1 of 166%
5+ receptions0 of 160%
7+ receptions0 of 160%
50+ receiving yards2 of 1612%
75+ receiving yards0 of 160%
100+ receiving yards0 of 160%
Scored a touchdown1 of 166%

Career by season

Chris Moore: snap share and target share by season02040608010020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.021.02.0148%7.9%
2025140.814.81.6149%6.5%
202460.00.00.0010%0.0%
2023171.324.92.1057%7.6%
2022163.034.24.6267%15.0%
2021121.818.91.8235%5.9%
202030.00.00.0010%0.0%
2019120.21.80.5021%1.7%
2018171.111.51.5138%4.9%
2017131.419.12.9346%7.4%
2016150.53.11.1016%2.4%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Baltimore Ravens roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4