Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars · Running backRB2

Over 13 games last season Chris Rodriguez Jr. averaged 0.2 receptions and 2 yards on 31% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.2

0.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

7.2

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

25%

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.2 projected
26 wk3	NE	21%	0.0%	0	0	0	8	37	1	0.3 -0.3
26 wk2	DEN	22%	0.0%	0	0	0	6	13	0	—
26 wk1	CLE	40%	0.0%	0	0	0	6	23	0	—
25 wk18	PHI	42%	5.3%	1	1	18	16	65	1	—
25 wk16	PHI	52%	5.0%	1	1	6	15	63	1	—
25 wk14	MIN	42%	0.0%	0	0	0	10	52	0	—
25 wk13	DEN	41%	2.2%	1	0	0	11	41	1	—
25 wk11	MIA	45%	3.4%	1	1	6	15	79	0	—
25 wk10	DET	33%	0.0%	0	0	0	6	16	1	—
25 wk9	SEA	34%	0.0%	0	0	0	12	65	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 15	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 15	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 15	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
Scored a touchdown	6 of 15	40%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.7	24.3	1	28%	0.0%
2025	13	0.2	2.3	0.3	8.6	38.5	6	31%	1.2%
2024	7	0.1	1.7	0.1	5.0	24.7	2	15%	0.4%
2023	11	0.2	1.1	0.2	4.6	22.5	2	15%	0.5%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Jacksonville Jaguars roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4