Colby Parkinson

Los Angeles Rams · Tight endTE3

Over 18 games last season Colby Parkinson averaged 2.8 receptions and 31 yards on 63% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.1

0.7 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

18%

red-zone role (+0.14)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.1 projected
26 wk3	DEN	43%	2.0%	1	0	0	0	2.6 -2.6
26 wk2	NYG	71%	6.7%	2	2	15	0	—
26 wk1	SF	77%	7.4%	2	1	6	0	—
25 wk21	SEA	77%	11.8%	4	3	62	0	—
25 wk20	CHI	68%	17.5%	7	3	56	0	—
25 wk19	CAR	75%	7.1%	3	2	34	1	—
25 wk18	ARI	84%	18.9%	7	4	36	2	—
25 wk17	ATL	78%	19.4%	7	6	53	0	—
25 wk16	SEA	86%	8.3%	4	2	21	0	—
25 wk15	DET	86%	18.4%	7	5	75	2	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	10 of 20	50%
5+ receptions	2 of 20	10%
7+ receptions	0 of 20	0%
50+ receiving yards	4 of 20	20%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 20	5%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 20	0%
Scored a touchdown	7 of 20	35%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.0	7.0	1.7	0	64%	5.4%
2025	18	2.8	31.1	3.9	9	63%	11.1%
2024	19	1.8	16.6	2.8	2	53%	8.8%
2023	17	1.5	14.5	2.0	2	47%	6.4%
2022	18	1.6	18.7	2.2	2	41%	7.0%
2021	12	0.4	2.8	0.7	0	26%	2.4%
2020	6	0.3	2.7	0.3	0	12%	1.0%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Los Angeles Rams roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4