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CK

Cooper Kupp

Seattle Seahawks · Wide receiverWR3

Over 19 games last season Cooper Kupp averaged 3.3 receptions and 39 yards on 76% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.9
0.3 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
32
Anytime TD
20%
third-down role (+0.05)
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

9%018%121%218%314%49%55%63%78910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————2.9 projected
26 wk3WAS67%11.1%544613.0 +1.0
26 wk2ARI43%7.7%22200—
26 wk1NE78%12.5%32350—
25 wk22NE78%33.3%126610—
25 wk21LA78%17.6%64361—
25 wk20SF74%31.2%55600—
25 wk18SF77%11.5%32290—
25 wk17CAR88%11.5%3160—
25 wk16LA93%12.9%43390—
25 wk15IND75%21.2%75460—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions10 of 2148%
5+ receptions5 of 2124%
7+ receptions1 of 215%
50+ receiving yards5 of 2124%
75+ receiving yards1 of 215%
100+ receiving yards0 of 210%
Scored a touchdown3 of 2114%

Career by season

Cooper Kupp: snap share and target share by season0204060801002017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far32.733.73.30.00.0163%10.4%
2025193.339.54.90.00.0376%17.8%
2024145.257.17.70.10.7681%22.8%
2023134.958.88.00.1-0.2591%25.9%
202298.390.210.91.05.8795%30.6%
2021218.5115.511.10.31.12295%32.3%
2020166.065.88.30.22.1381%23.8%
2019165.972.68.40.10.21081%22.2%
201885.070.86.90.53.1683%20.5%
2017164.458.66.70.00.0677%20.1%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Seattle Seahawks roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4