Darnell Mooney

New York Giants · Wide receiverWR3

Over 15 games last season Darnell Mooney averaged 2.1 receptions and 30 yards on 82% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.7

0.4 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

10%

third-down role (+0.09)

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7 projected
26 wk3	TEN	44%	14.3%	3	2	20	1	9	0	2.0 +0.0
26 wk2	LA	72%	9.4%	3	2	48	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	DAL	57%	6.9%	2	2	27	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	NO	83%	23.3%	7	3	20	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	LA	70%	15.0%	3	2	35	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	ARI	70%	5.9%	2	2	24	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	TB	92%	14.6%	6	3	35	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	SEA	77%	14.3%	4	1	6	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	NYJ	96%	16.1%	5	2	25	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	NO	66%	15.0%	3	3	74	0	0	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	6 of 17	35%
5+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 17	12%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 17	6%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	2.0	31.7	2.7	0	58%	10.2%
2025	15	2.1	29.5	4.8	1	82%	16.2%
2024	16	4.0	62.0	6.6	5	93%	20.6%
2023	15	2.1	27.6	4.1	1	75%	13.8%
2022	12	3.3	41.1	5.1	2	83%	24.7%
2021	17	4.8	62.1	8.2	5	88%	27.2%
2020	16	3.8	39.4	6.1	4	73%	16.2%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New York Giants roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4