Davante Adams

Los Angeles Rams · Wide receiverWR2

Over 17 games last season Davante Adams averaged 4.2 receptions and 57 yards on 71% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.6

0.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

34%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.6 projected
26 wk3	DEN	83%	26.5%	13	7	137	0	4.8 +2.2
26 wk2	NYG	65%	33.3%	10	8	195	2	—
26 wk1	SF	54%	22.2%	6	3	26	0	—
25 wk21	SEA	61%	17.6%	6	4	89	1	—
25 wk20	CHI	78%	15.0%	6	2	24	0	—
25 wk19	CAR	72%	31.0%	13	5	72	0	—
25 wk15	DET	46%	23.7%	9	4	71	0	—
25 wk14	ARI	43%	19.4%	6	4	29	0	—
25 wk13	CAR	75%	18.5%	5	4	58	2	—
25 wk12	TB	77%	23.5%	8	5	62	2	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	17 of 19	89%
5+ receptions	8 of 19	42%
7+ receptions	1 of 19	5%
50+ receiving yards	13 of 19	68%
75+ receiving yards	5 of 19	26%
100+ receiving yards	2 of 19	11%
Scored a touchdown	11 of 19	58%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	6.0	119.3	9.7	2	67%	27.4%
2025	17	4.2	57.3	8.2	15	71%	24.4%
2024	14	6.1	75.9	10.1	8	92%	29.6%
2023	17	6.1	67.3	10.3	8	92%	32.5%
2022	17	5.9	89.2	10.6	14	95%	32.8%
2021	17	7.8	96.6	10.6	11	86%	32.2%
2020	16	8.3	94.2	10.9	20	86%	33.6%
2019	14	7.1	92.5	10.6	7	86%	32.0%
2018	15	7.4	92.4	11.3	13	93%	29.3%
2017	14	5.3	63.2	8.4	10	85%	25.0%
2016	19	4.8	63.9	7.7	14	83%	19.7%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Davante Adams sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the LA room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Los Angeles Rams roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4