Davis Allen

Los Angeles Rams · Tight endTE depth

Over 20 games last season Davis Allen averaged 1.2 receptions and 10 yards on 49% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.6

0.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

12%

third-down role (+0.12)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6 projected
26 wk3	DEN	36%	6.1%	3	2	19	0	1.4 +0.6
26 wk2	NYG	52%	3.3%	1	1	7	0	—
26 wk1	SF	34%	3.7%	1	1	13	0	—
25 wk21	SEA	62%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk20	CHI	12%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk19	CAR	43%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	ARI	71%	2.7%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	ATL	42%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	SEA	65%	10.4%	5	2	34	0	—
25 wk15	DET	75%	10.5%	4	3	16	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 22 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	3 of 22	14%
5+ receptions	0 of 22	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 22	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 22	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 22	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 22	0%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 22	14%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.3	13.0	1.7	0	41%	4.4%
2025	20	1.2	10.4	1.6	3	49%	4.8%
2024	16	0.4	3.2	0.9	1	33%	2.5%
2023	16	0.8	7.7	0.8	1	19%	2.7%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Los Angeles Rams roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4