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De'Von Achane

Miami Dolphins · Running backRB1

Over 16 games last season De'Von Achane averaged 4.2 receptions and 30 yards on 75% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.6
1.5 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
22
Rush attempts
11.3
Rushing yards
45
Anytime TD
24%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

11%020%122%218%312%48%54%678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.6 projected
26 wk3KC5%2.9%10031704.2 -4.2
26 wk2SF76%26.1%631920740—
26 wk1LV86%18.5%543011360—
25 wk17TB75%13.6%332918830—
25 wk16CIN71%10.3%33915811—
25 wk15PIT80%23.1%666712600—
25 wk14NYJ34%4.8%11137921—
25 wk13NO73%5.0%100221341—
25 wk11WAS80%25.0%5545211200—
25 wk10BUF89%28.6%6651221742—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions15 of 1883%
5+ receptions8 of 1844%
7+ receptions2 of 1811%
50+ receiving yards3 of 1817%
75+ receiving yards1 of 186%
100+ receiving yards0 of 180%
Scored a touchdown10 of 1856%

Career by season

De'Von Achane: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far32.316.34.011.342.3056%15.8%
2025164.230.55.314.984.41275%18.8%
2024174.634.85.111.953.41262%15.3%
2023122.518.23.69.167.41143%11.3%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If De'Von Achane sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the MIA room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Miami Dolphins roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4