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Dontayvion Wicks

Philadelphia Eagles · Wide receiverWR2

Over 14 games last season Dontayvion Wicks averaged 2.1 receptions and 24 yards on 45% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.8
0.7 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
42
Anytime TD
24%
red-zone AND third-down role (+0.13)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

10%019%121%218%313%48%55%63%78910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.8 projected
26 wk3CHI—20.0%52320003.0 -1.0
26 wk2TEN62%17.6%6574000—
26 wk1WAS91%18.2%4273001—
25 wk17BAL6%4.0%117000—
25 wk16CHI42%8.3%2212000—
25 wk15DEN42%5.6%216000—
25 wk14CHI11%0.0%000000—
25 wk13DET49%24.1%7694162—
25 wk12MIN48%19.0%4232000—
25 wk11NYG56%8.0%219000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions4 of 1625%
5+ receptions2 of 1612%
7+ receptions0 of 160%
50+ receiving yards3 of 1619%
75+ receiving yards1 of 166%
100+ receiving yards0 of 160%
Scored a touchdown2 of 1612%

Career by season

Dontayvion Wicks: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.059.75.0176%18.6%
2025142.123.73.3245%11.9%
2024182.325.24.6556%16.6%
2023172.435.63.6548%11.1%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Dontayvion Wicks sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the PHI room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Philadelphia Eagles roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4