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DS

Drew Sample

Cincinnati Bengals · Tight endTE2

Over 17 games last season Drew Sample averaged 0.9 receptions and 6 yards on 54% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.3
0.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
13
Anytime TD
17%

What a realistic week looks like

35%031%118%29%34%45678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————1.3 projected
26 wk3PIT51%5.4%2100001.7 -0.7
26 wk2HOU60%0.0%000000—
26 wk1TB66%8.8%3319000—
25 wk18CLE72%7.9%3317000—
25 wk17ARI65%3.0%118000—
25 wk16MIA66%6.5%2231000—
25 wk15BAL54%5.6%2212000—
25 wk14BUF45%0.0%000000—
25 wk13BAL59%4.5%2114130—
25 wk12NE52%2.9%110000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions2 of 1911%
5+ receptions0 of 190%
7+ receptions0 of 190%
50+ receiving yards0 of 190%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown1 of 195%

Career by season

Drew Sample: snap share and target share by season02040608010020192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.36.31.7059%4.7%
2025170.96.21.2154%3.4%
2024171.26.41.3157%3.5%
2023171.39.61.6245%4.7%
202221.0-1.01.0022%2.4%
2021210.64.00.8042%2.4%
2020162.521.83.3181%9.7%
201990.63.30.7018%1.7%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Drew Sample sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the CIN room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Cincinnati Bengals roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4