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Durham Smythe

Baltimore Ravens · Tight endTE3

Over 19 games last season Durham Smythe averaged 0.3 receptions and 2 yards on 25% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.7
0.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
9
Anytime TD
15%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

57%027%110%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.7 projected
26 wk3DAL53%0.0%00000.8 -0.8
26 wk2NO55%3.4%1000—
26 wk1IND62%4.2%1140—
25 wk20LA33%2.4%1150—
25 wk19GB19%4.3%2160—
25 wk18DET22%0.0%0000—
25 wk17SF21%2.6%11110—
25 wk16GB19%0.0%0000—
25 wk15CLE38%0.0%0000—
25 wk14GB29%3.6%1120—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 210%
5+ receptions0 of 210%
7+ receptions0 of 210%
50+ receiving yards0 of 210%
75+ receiving yards0 of 210%
100+ receiving yards0 of 210%
Scored a touchdown0 of 210%

Career by season

Durham Smythe: snap share and target share by season020406080100201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.31.30.7057%2.5%
2025190.31.90.5025%1.4%
2024170.53.11.0032%2.9%
2023172.222.22.8078%8.2%
2022170.98.81.2258%4.3%
2021172.021.02.4062%7.1%
2020151.713.91.9245%6.1%
2019160.44.10.9044%2.2%
2018150.43.30.7022%2.8%

9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Baltimore Ravens roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4