Elijah Arroyo

Seattle Seahawks · Tight endTE3

Over 14 games last season Elijah Arroyo averaged 1.1 receptions and 13 yards on 39% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.6

0.4 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.6 projected
26 wk3	WAS	27%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.6 -0.6
26 wk2	ARI	21%	3.8%	1	1	17	0	—
26 wk1	NE	22%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk22	NE	26%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	ATL	11%	3.3%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	MIN	37%	8.7%	2	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	TEN	38%	4.0%	1	1	5	0	—
25 wk11	LA	37%	4.8%	2	0	0	0	—
25 wk10	ARI	47%	8.3%	1	1	5	0	—
25 wk9	WAS	43%	8.3%	2	2	29	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	1 of 16	6%
5+ receptions	0 of 16	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 16	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 16	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 16	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 16	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 16	6%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.3	5.7	0.3	0	23%	1.3%
2025	14	1.1	12.8	1.9	1	39%	7.3%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Seattle Seahawks roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4