Elijah Higgins

Arizona Cardinals · Tight endTE2

Over 17 games last season Elijah Higgins averaged 1.8 receptions and 18 yards on 43% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.9

0.8 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

10%

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9 projected
26 wk3	SF	40%	6.0%	3	3	20	0	0.7 +2.3
26 wk2	SEA	26%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	LAC	27%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	LA	60%	10.7%	3	3	28	0	—
25 wk17	CIN	60%	2.9%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	ATL	63%	27.6%	8	7	91	0	—
25 wk15	HOU	70%	5.3%	2	1	3	0	—
25 wk14	LA	66%	2.3%	1	1	0	0	—
25 wk13	TB	41%	5.4%	2	2	17	0	—
25 wk12	JAX	37%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	3 of 19	16%
5+ receptions	1 of 19	5%
7+ receptions	1 of 19	5%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	0 of 19	0%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.0	6.7	1.0	0	31%	2.0%
2025	17	1.8	17.7	2.2	0	43%	6.7%
2024	17	1.2	10.1	1.4	2	38%	4.9%
2023	11	1.3	14.8	1.7	1	26%	5.3%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Elijah Higgins sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the ARI room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Arizona Cardinals roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4