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Emanuel Wilson

Seattle Seahawks · Running backRB1

Over 18 games last season Emanuel Wilson averaged 0.8 receptions and 6 yards on 30% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.8
0.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
2
Rush attempts
9.7
Rushing yards
42
Anytime TD
23%
red-zone role (+0.07)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

50%029%113%25%345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.8 projected
26 wk3WAS36%0.0%00091400.5 -0.5
26 wk2ARI41%3.8%10021920—
26 wk1NE6%0.0%000230—
25 wk19CHI18%0.0%000130—
25 wk18MIN55%10.0%11418440—
25 wk17BAL36%4.0%1183160—
25 wk16CHI46%0.0%00014820—
25 wk15DEN20%0.0%000230—
25 wk14CHI15%0.0%0003100—
25 wk13DET19%0.0%0004140—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions2 of 2010%
5+ receptions0 of 200%
7+ receptions0 of 200%
50+ receiving yards0 of 200%
75+ receiving yards0 of 200%
100+ receiving yards0 of 200%
Scored a touchdown2 of 2010%

Career by season

Emanuel Wilson: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.00.00.310.736.3028%1.3%
2025180.85.50.97.027.7330%3.5%
2024180.73.90.95.928.2523%3.3%
202390.63.80.72.913.4010%1.9%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Emanuel Wilson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the SEA room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Seattle Seahawks roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4