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Emari Demercado

Dallas Cowboys · Running backRB3

Over 13 games last season Emari Demercado averaged 1.0 receptions and 8 yards on 25% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.4
0.6 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
-0
Anytime TD
9%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

73%019%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.4 projected
26 wk2WAS16%0.0%000380—
26 wk1NYG9%0.0%000270—
25 wk18LA22%3.6%11282290—
25 wk17CIN53%8.6%3295110—
25 wk16ATL32%3.4%1005300—
25 wk15HOU11%7.9%320110—
25 wk11SF18%5.4%3212580—
25 wk10SEA42%9.1%43404640—
25 wk9DAL40%3.4%11-114790—
25 wk6IND4%2.6%100110—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions1 of 157%
5+ receptions0 of 150%
7+ receptions0 of 150%
50+ receiving yards0 of 150%
75+ receiving yards0 of 150%
100+ receiving yards0 of 150%
Scored a touchdown1 of 157%

Career by season

Emari Demercado: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far20.00.00.02.57.5012%0.0%
2025131.07.81.53.424.0125%4.0%
2024131.28.01.51.817.2120%5.0%
2023141.58.52.14.120.3231%6.2%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Dallas Cowboys roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4