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Eric Saubert

Seattle Seahawks · Tight endTE2

Over 14 games last season Eric Saubert averaged 0.3 receptions and 2 yards on 42% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.5
0.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
5
Anytime TD
20%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

68%022%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.5 projected
26 wk3WAS27%4.4%211310.2 +0.8
26 wk2ARI24%3.8%11-100—
26 wk1NE20%0.0%0000—
25 wk22NE44%0.0%0000—
25 wk21LA57%0.0%0000—
25 wk20SF47%0.0%0000—
25 wk18SF70%11.5%32100—
25 wk17CAR52%7.7%2000—
25 wk16LA38%0.0%0000—
25 wk15IND37%3.0%1190—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 160%
5+ receptions0 of 160%
7+ receptions0 of 160%
50+ receiving yards0 of 160%
75+ receiving yards0 of 160%
100+ receiving yards0 of 160%
Scored a touchdown0 of 160%

Career by season

Eric Saubert: snap share and target share by season0204060801002017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.71.01.0124%2.8%
2025140.32.20.5042%1.9%
2024170.65.70.8134%2.4%
202380.41.50.4023%1.3%
2022170.98.71.4135%4.2%
2021170.52.80.7126%2.0%
202080.42.00.5019%1.3%
201921.010.51.5034%4.5%
2018160.33.00.6017%1.3%
2017110.00.00.005%0.0%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Seattle Seahawks roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4