Over 7 games last season Garrett Wilson averaged 5.1 receptions and 56 yards on 87% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 5.6 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
5.6
0.5 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
57
Anytime TD
37%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 9 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
5.6 projected
26 wk3
DET
94%
36.1%
13
10
107
1
5.2 +4.8
26 wk2
GB
88%
19.4%
7
5
57
1
—
26 wk1
TEN
75%
30.4%
7
6
79
0
—
25 wk10
CLE
39%
27.3%
3
0
0
0
—
25 wk6
DEN
84%
50.0%
8
3
13
0
—
25 wk5
DAL
94%
22.7%
10
6
71
1
—
25 wk4
MIA
98%
29.6%
8
6
82
1
—
25 wk3
TB
100%
37.1%
13
10
84
1
—
25 wk2
BUF
94%
38.1%
8
4
50
0
—
25 wk1
PIT
100%
42.9%
9
7
95
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 9 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
8 of 9
89%
5+ receptions
6 of 9
67%
7+ receptions
2 of 9
22%
50+ receiving yards
7 of 9
78%
75+ receiving yards
4 of 9
44%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
Scored a touchdown
5 of 9
56%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
7.0
81.0
9.0
2
86%
28.7%
2025
7
5.1
56.4
8.4
4
87%
35.4%
2024
17
5.9
64.9
9.1
7
96%
26.0%
2023
17
5.6
61.3
9.9
3
91%
29.8%
2022
17
4.9
64.9
8.6
4
80%
25.4%
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016