Greg Dulcich

Miami Dolphins · Tight endTE1

Over 10 games last season Greg Dulcich averaged 2.6 receptions and 34 yards on 42% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.1

0.5 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

red-zone role (+0.07)

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.1 projected
26 wk3	KC	70%	20.0%	7	5	55	0	0	0	2.7 +2.3
26 wk2	SF	61%	13.0%	3	2	17	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	LV	77%	7.4%	2	2	18	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	NE	52%	16.7%	4	3	31	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	TB	36%	27.3%	6	5	58	1	-7	1	—
25 wk16	CIN	29%	10.3%	3	3	46	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	PIT	38%	7.7%	2	2	46	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	NYJ	54%	14.3%	3	3	41	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	NO	37%	10.0%	2	2	24	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	WAS	54%	20.0%	4	2	18	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 12 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	5 of 12	42%
5+ receptions	2 of 12	17%
7+ receptions	0 of 12	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 12	8%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 12	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 12	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 12	8%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.0	30.0	4.0	0	69%	13.5%
2025	10	2.6	33.5	3.3	1	42%	13.9%
2024	9	0.6	3.1	1.3	0	26%	3.9%
2023	2	1.5	12.5	2.0	0	27%	7.7%
2022	10	3.3	41.1	5.5	2	75%	17.7%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Greg Dulcich sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the MIA room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Miami Dolphins roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4