Over 16 games last season Harold Fannin Jr. averaged 4.5 receptions and 46 yards on 76% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.5 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
4.5
0.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
41
Anytime TD
34%
third-down role (+0.05)
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.5 projected
26 wk3
CAR
86%
30.0%
9
7
51
0
0
2
4.1 +2.9
26 wk2
TB
86%
20.0%
6
5
54
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
JAX
82%
13.6%
3
2
21
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
PIT
23%
8.7%
2
2
30
0
0
1
—
25 wk16
BUF
86%
22.2%
6
4
34
1
1
2
—
25 wk15
CHI
96%
45.2%
14
7
48
1
2
0
—
25 wk14
TEN
90%
28.9%
11
8
114
0
0
1
—
25 wk13
SF
92%
21.7%
5
3
43
1
0
1
—
25 wk12
LV
90%
33.3%
6
4
40
1
4
0
—
25 wk11
BAL
73%
20.0%
5
2
26
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
14 of 18
78%
5+ receptions
7 of 18
39%
7+ receptions
4 of 18
22%
50+ receiving yards
5 of 18
28%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 18
11%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 18
6%
Scored a touchdown
6 of 18
33%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
4.7
42.0
6.0
2
85%
21.2%
2025
16
4.5
45.7
6.7
7
76%
21.8%
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016