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Hunter Long

Arizona Cardinals · Tight endTE3

Over 9 games last season Hunter Long averaged 1.3 receptions and 9 yards on 40% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.6
0.7 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
7
Anytime TD
8%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

61%025%19%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.6 projected
26 wk3SF34%2.0%11500.6 +0.4
26 wk2SEA30%0.0%0000—
26 wk1LAC35%0.0%0000—
25 wk14IND31%0.0%0000—
25 wk9LV66%9.1%3160—
25 wk7LA60%6.4%32160—
25 wk6SEA80%7.1%32190—
25 wk5KC60%4.0%1130—
25 wk4SF32%10.0%33231—
25 wk3HOU20%7.9%32120—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 11 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions1 of 119%
5+ receptions0 of 110%
7+ receptions0 of 110%
50+ receiving yards0 of 110%
75+ receiving yards0 of 110%
100+ receiving yards0 of 110%
Scored a touchdown2 of 1118%

Career by season

Hunter Long: snap share and target share by season020406080100202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.31.70.3033%0.7%
202591.39.41.9240%5.3%
2024190.43.80.6026%2.0%
202330.00.00.0027%0.0%
2022100.00.00.1016%0.2%
202170.11.10.4019%1.2%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Arizona Cardinals roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4