Ian Thomas

Las Vegas Raiders · Tight endTE3

Over 15 games last season Ian Thomas averaged 0.9 receptions and 8 yards on 36% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.7

0.2 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.7 projected
26 wk3	NO	20%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	1.1 -1.1
26 wk2	LAC	49%	3.4%	1	1	11	0	—
26 wk1	MIA	46%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	KC	39%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	NYG	36%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	DEN	50%	7.1%	2	2	17	0	—
25 wk13	LAC	56%	4.5%	1	1	8	0	—
25 wk12	CLE	56%	9.5%	4	4	36	0	—
25 wk11	DAL	28%	2.6%	1	1	20	0	—
25 wk10	DEN	10%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	2 of 17	12%
5+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	0 of 17	0%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.3	3.7	0.3	0	38%	1.1%
2025	15	0.9	7.6	0.9	0	36%	2.6%
2024	5	0.6	1.4	1.2	0	34%	4.8%
2023	12	0.4	4.7	0.8	0	27%	2.8%
2022	17	1.2	11.6	1.8	0	54%	6.9%
2021	17	1.1	11.1	1.8	0	62%	5.4%
2020	16	1.2	9.1	1.9	1	65%	5.9%
2019	16	1.0	8.5	1.9	1	27%	4.6%
2018	15	2.4	22.2	3.3	2	50%	9.4%

9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Las Vegas Raiders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4