Isaiah Davis

New York Jets · Running backRB3

Over 16 games last season Isaiah Davis averaged 1.3 receptions and 12 yards on 28% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.9

0.4 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

-1

Anytime TD

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9 projected
26 wk3	DET	—	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.0 -1.0
26 wk2	GB	—	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	NE	13%	3.1%	1	1	9	3	11	0	—
25 wk16	NO	36%	11.8%	4	4	52	3	8	0	—
25 wk15	JAX	38%	3.1%	1	1	7	9	58	1	—
25 wk14	MIA	24%	0.0%	0	0	0	2	22	0	—
25 wk13	ATL	12%	3.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	BAL	29%	0.0%	0	0	0	4	7	0	—
25 wk11	NE	28%	3.8%	1	0	0	2	11	0	—
25 wk10	CLE	29%	9.1%	1	1	1	3	10	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	3 of 17	18%
5+ receptions	1 of 17	6%
7+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 17	6%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 17	6%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0%	0.0%
2025	16	1.3	11.6	1.8	2.7	14.8	1	28%	6.3%
2024	13	0.7	5.8	0.9	2.3	13.4	2	19%	2.5%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New York Jets roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4