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Isaiah Likely

New York Giants · Tight endTE1

Over 14 games last season Isaiah Likely averaged 1.9 receptions and 22 yards on 56% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.2
1.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
43
Anytime TD
38%
red-zone role (+0.07)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

7%015%120%219%315%410%56%64%72%8910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————3.2 projected
26 wk3TEN84%23.8%521303.3 -1.3
26 wk2LA69%31.2%105330—
26 wk1DAL49%27.6%88782—
25 wk18PIT49%11.8%22320—
25 wk17GB70%15.0%33270—
25 wk16NE40%0.0%0000—
25 wk15CIN51%0.0%0000—
25 wk14PIT60%18.2%64251—
25 wk13CIN52%20.0%65950—
25 wk12NYJ57%15.0%31100—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions6 of 1638%
5+ receptions3 of 1619%
7+ receptions1 of 166%
50+ receiving yards3 of 1619%
75+ receiving yards2 of 1612%
100+ receiving yards0 of 160%
Scored a touchdown2 of 1612%

Career by season

Isaiah Likely: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far35.041.37.7267%27.5%
2025141.921.92.6156%10.3%
2024182.733.53.7762%13.4%
2023191.824.32.4646%8.6%
2022172.121.93.5339%12.2%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Isaiah Likely sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NYG room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole New York Giants roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4