Slate Stats › NFL › Players

IW

Isaiah Williams

New York Jets · Wide receiverWR3

Over 15 games last season Isaiah Williams averaged 1.7 receptions and 13 yards on 49% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.9
1.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
21
Anytime TD
12%
third-down role (+0.09)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

9%018%121%218%313%49%55%63%78910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.9 projected
26 wk3DET89%5.6%21210002.5 -1.5
26 wk2GB82%16.7%66341140—
26 wk1TEN60%4.3%117000—
25 wk18BUF52%31.8%7524000—
25 wk17NE69%15.6%5430150—
25 wk16NO77%11.8%4425000—
25 wk15JAX60%21.9%7653000—
25 wk14MIA57%9.4%3224000—
25 wk13ATL39%3.2%100000—
25 wk12BAL27%0.0%000000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions6 of 1735%
5+ receptions3 of 1718%
7+ receptions0 of 170%
50+ receiving yards1 of 176%
75+ receiving yards0 of 170%
100+ receiving yards0 of 170%
Scored a touchdown0 of 170%

Career by season

Isaiah Williams: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far32.720.73.0077%8.9%
2025151.712.92.4049%8.8%
202480.20.80.406%2.1%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New York Jets roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4