Over 16 games last season Jack Bech averaged 1.2 receptions and 14 yards on 42% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.8 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
1.8
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
16
Anytime TD
15%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.8 projected
26 wk3
NO
16%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
2.0 -2.0
26 wk2
LAC
54%
6.9%
2
2
25
0
—
26 wk1
MIA
40%
13.8%
4
3
23
1
—
25 wk18
KC
58%
7.7%
2
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
HOU
72%
13.6%
3
2
43
0
—
25 wk15
PHI
81%
12.0%
3
2
17
0
—
25 wk14
DEN
82%
21.4%
6
6
50
0
—
25 wk13
LAC
56%
13.6%
3
2
22
0
—
25 wk12
CLE
11%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk11
DAL
15%
2.6%
1
1
19
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 18
17%
5+ receptions
1 of 18
6%
7+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 18
6%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 18
6%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
1.7
16.0
2.0
1
37%
6.9%
2025
16
1.2
14.0
1.8
0
42%
7.0%
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016