Jakobi Meyers

Jacksonville Jaguars · Wide receiverWR3

Over 17 games last season Jakobi Meyers averaged 4.5 receptions and 50 yards on 86% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.0

0.4 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

26%

third-down role (+0.06)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.0 projected
26 wk3	NE	81%	29.6%	8	7	64	0	0	1	3.5 +3.5
26 wk2	DEN	90%	3.6%	1	1	28	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	CLE	65%	9.5%	2	2	40	1	2	1	—
25 wk19	BUF	96%	13.3%	4	1	12	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	TEN	79%	19.4%	6	5	44	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	IND	94%	24.3%	9	6	39	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	DEN	86%	22.9%	8	4	45	1	1	0	—
25 wk15	NYJ	87%	25.0%	7	5	71	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	IND	83%	32.3%	10	4	39	3	9	1	—
25 wk13	TEN	92%	24.0%	6	6	90	1	3	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	16 of 19	84%
5+ receptions	7 of 19	37%
7+ receptions	1 of 19	5%
50+ receiving yards	7 of 19	37%
75+ receiving yards	2 of 19	11%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 19	21%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.3	44.0	3.7	2	79%	14.2%
2025	17	4.5	49.8	6.7	3	86%	22.3%
2024	15	5.8	68.5	8.6	4	92%	25.2%
2023	16	4.4	50.4	6.6	10	90%	20.6%
2022	14	4.8	57.4	6.9	6	79%	22.5%
2021	18	4.9	50.3	7.5	2	84%	22.6%
2020	14	4.2	52.1	5.8	0	77%	24.7%
2019	15	1.7	23.9	2.7	0	37%	7.1%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Jacksonville Jaguars roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4