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JM

Jaleel McLaughlin

Cleveland Browns · Running backRB3

Over 10 games last season Jaleel McLaughlin averaged 0.5 receptions and 3 yards on 16% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.2
0.3 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
0
Anytime TD
6%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

82%014%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.2 projected
26 wk3CAR6%0.0%0000000.3 -0.3
26 wk2TB14%3.3%100130—
25 wk21NE17%7.4%2124110—
25 wk20BUF14%2.4%1004210—
25 wk18LAC22%8.7%21176410—
25 wk17KC22%0.0%0007400—
25 wk16JAX15%0.0%0005370—
25 wk15GB13%0.0%000240—
25 wk14LV14%2.8%1194220—
25 wk13WAS19%2.3%1166240—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 11 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 110%
5+ receptions0 of 110%
7+ receptions0 of 110%
50+ receiving yards0 of 110%
75+ receiving yards0 of 110%
100+ receiving yards0 of 110%
Scored a touchdown1 of 119%

Career by season

Jaleel McLaughlin: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far20.00.00.50.51.5010%1.7%
2025100.52.90.94.521.9116%3.0%
2024171.54.51.66.829.1328%5.2%
2023171.89.42.14.524.1319%7.6%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Cleveland Browns roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4