Jaylen Wright

Miami Dolphins · Running backRB3

Over 10 games last season Jaylen Wright averaged 0.5 receptions and 4 yards on 22% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.2

0.3 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

-1

Anytime TD

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.2 projected
26 wk2	SF	5%	0.0%	0	0	0	2	11	0	—
26 wk1	LV	7%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	-1	0	—
25 wk18	NE	46%	8.3%	2	2	17	13	23	0	—
25 wk17	TB	15%	0.0%	0	0	0	5	56	0	—
25 wk16	CIN	31%	6.9%	2	1	18	9	35	1	—
25 wk15	PIT	8%	3.8%	1	1	9	1	2	0	—
25 wk14	NYJ	52%	14.3%	3	0	0	24	107	1	—
25 wk13	NO	10%	0.0%	0	0	0	3	16	0	—
25 wk11	WAS	2%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	4	0	—
25 wk10	BUF	19%	0.0%	0	0	0	5	17	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 12 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 12	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 12	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 12	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 12	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 12	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 12	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 12	17%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	5.0	0	6%	0.0%
2025	10	0.5	4.4	0.9	7.0	28.8	2	22%	3.7%
2024	15	0.2	0.5	0.4	4.5	16.6	0	17%	1.1%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Miami Dolphins roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4