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JR

Jeremy Ruckert

New York Jets · Tight endTE2

Over 17 games last season Jeremy Ruckert averaged 1.4 receptions and 11 yards on 47% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.8
0.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
15
Anytime TD
22%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

23%028%122%213%37%44%5678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————1.8 projected
26 wk3DET42%13.9%553911.8 +3.2
26 wk2GB34%5.6%2250—
26 wk1TEN43%4.3%1140—
25 wk18BUF60%0.0%0000—
25 wk17NE61%9.4%3120—
25 wk16NO67%8.8%32140—
25 wk15JAX74%6.2%22130—
25 wk14MIA53%9.4%32190—
25 wk13ATL42%6.5%22120—
25 wk12BAL34%0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions2 of 1911%
5+ receptions0 of 190%
7+ receptions0 of 190%
50+ receiving yards0 of 190%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown1 of 195%

Career by season

Jeremy Ruckert: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far32.716.02.7140%7.9%
2025171.410.51.7147%6.0%
2024171.16.21.6037%5.1%
2023151.110.11.5032%4.4%
202250.21.60.4015%1.1%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jeremy Ruckert sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NYJ room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole New York Jets roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4