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JM

Johnny Mundt

Philadelphia Eagles · Tight endTE3

Over 17 games last season Johnny Mundt averaged 0.5 receptions and 7 yards on 35% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.1
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
9
Anytime TD
11%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

40%031%116%28%345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————1.1 projected
26 wk3CHI—4.0%11401.6 -0.6
26 wk2TEN64%8.8%3280—
26 wk1WAS36%0.0%0000—
25 wk19BUF23%0.0%0000—
25 wk18TEN31%3.2%11160—
25 wk17IND25%2.7%1000—
25 wk16DEN36%0.0%0000—
25 wk15NYJ18%0.0%0000—
25 wk13TEN24%0.0%0000—
25 wk12ARI48%6.7%21120—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 190%
5+ receptions0 of 190%
7+ receptions0 of 190%
50+ receiving yards0 of 190%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown0 of 190%

Career by season

Johnny Mundt: snap share and target share by season0204060801002017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.04.01.3050%4.3%
2025170.56.51.1035%3.6%
2024181.29.41.7239%6.0%
2023171.010.11.4121%3.9%
2022181.18.41.2139%3.4%
202160.21.50.2026%0.4%
2020140.33.80.3014%0.9%
2019120.32.20.6028%1.3%
2018100.10.50.108%0.4%
201720.00.00.004%0.0%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Philadelphia Eagles roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4