Jonathan Mingo

Dallas Cowboys · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 6 games last season Jonathan Mingo averaged 0.2 receptions and 4 yards on 21% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.5

0.3 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.5 projected
26 wk3	BAL	18%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.6 -0.6
26 wk2	WAS	20%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	NYG	19%	3.3%	1	1	10	0	—
25 wk18	NYG	44%	4.3%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	WAS	9%	2.8%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	LAC	36%	3.1%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	MIN	10%	2.9%	1	1	25	0	—
25 wk14	DET	21%	2.1%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	PHI	4%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 8 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 8	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 8	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 8	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 8	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 8	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 8	0%
Scored a touchdown	0 of 8	0%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.3	3.3	0.3	19%	1.1%
2025	6	0.2	4.2	0.8	21%	2.5%
2024	17	1.0	9.8	2.5	42%	7.2%
2023	15	2.9	27.9	5.7	90%	18.5%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Dallas Cowboys roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4