Justice Hill

Baltimore Ravens · Running backRB2

Over 10 games last season Justice Hill averaged 2.1 receptions and 17 yards on 37% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.7

0.4 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

4.9

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

17%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.7 projected
26 wk3	DAL	33%	0.0%	0	0	0	5	33	0	2.2 -2.2
26 wk2	NO	47%	6.9%	2	2	12	2	6	0	—
26 wk1	IND	46%	4.2%	1	1	10	6	18	0	—
25 wk12	NYJ	25%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk10	MIN	27%	7.1%	2	1	12	1	1	1	—
25 wk9	MIA	20%	8.7%	2	2	13	1	2	0	—
25 wk8	CHI	31%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	2	0	—
25 wk6	LA	45%	18.8%	6	5	28	6	16	0	—
25 wk5	HOU	30%	10.0%	2	1	9	1	3	0	—
25 wk4	KC	58%	20.0%	6	5	41	3	76	2	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 12 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	4 of 12	33%
5+ receptions	2 of 12	17%
7+ receptions	0 of 12	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 12	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 12	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 12	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 12	17%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.0	7.3	1.0	4.3	19.0	0	42%	3.7%
2025	10	2.1	16.9	2.7	1.8	9.3	3	37%	10.0%
2024	17	2.8	23.7	3.4	3.5	17.1	5	42%	13.2%
2023	18	1.9	13.9	2.7	5.6	25.3	4	43%	9.4%
2022	16	0.9	4.2	0.9	3.1	16.4	0	26%	3.2%
2020	14	0.4	1.4	0.4	0.9	4.3	0	12%	1.9%
2019	17	0.7	5.6	1.2	3.4	13.2	2	19%	3.5%

7 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Justice Hill sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the BAL room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Baltimore Ravens roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4