KaVontae Turpin

Dallas Cowboys · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 15 games last season KaVontae Turpin averaged 1.7 receptions and 26 yards on 35% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.0

0.8 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

15%

red-zone AND third-down role (+0.13)

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.0 projected
26 wk3	BAL	16%	5.0%	2	1	9	1	9	1	0.8 +0.2
26 wk2	WAS	9%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	1	0	—
26 wk1	NYG	14%	3.3%	1	1	8	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	NYG	16%	4.3%	1	0	0	1	7	0	—
25 wk17	WAS	17%	2.8%	1	1	86	0	0	1	—
25 wk16	LAC	31%	12.5%	4	2	14	2	13	0	—
25 wk15	MIN	20%	5.7%	2	2	10	1	2	0	—
25 wk14	DET	52%	4.3%	2	2	26	1	4	0	—
25 wk13	KC	36%	5.4%	2	2	28	3	33	0	—
25 wk12	PHI	47%	5.7%	2	1	48	2	4	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	2 of 17	12%
5+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 17	12%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 17	6%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 17	12%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.7	5.7	1.0	0.7	3.3	1	13%	2.8%
2025	15	1.7	26.4	2.5	1.1	5.9	2	35%	6.9%
2024	17	1.8	24.7	3.1	0.9	5.4	2	27%	8.1%
2023	17	0.7	7.5	1.1	0.6	6.5	4	12%	3.1%
2022	19	0.1	0.9	0.2	0.2	0.9	0	6%	0.4%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Dallas Cowboys roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4