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Kendrick Bourne

Arizona Cardinals · Wide receiverWR2

Over 18 games last season Kendrick Bourne averaged 2.1 receptions and 31 yards on 55% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.7
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
32
Anytime TD
19%
third-down role (+0.06)

What a realistic week looks like

11%020%122%218%312%48%54%62%78910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————2.7 projected
26 wk3SF55%6.0%322202.9 -0.9
26 wk2SEA60%11.5%32110—
26 wk1LAC67%21.6%88750—
25 wk20SEA40%7.4%2000—
25 wk19PHI37%0.0%0000—
25 wk18SEA52%3.7%1000—
25 wk17CHI26%3.0%11250—
25 wk16IND70%15.2%53270—
25 wk15TEN45%10.7%32170—
25 wk13CLE34%4.3%1000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions7 of 2035%
5+ receptions3 of 2015%
7+ receptions2 of 2010%
50+ receiving yards3 of 2015%
75+ receiving yards3 of 2015%
100+ receiving yards2 of 2010%
Scored a touchdown0 of 200%

Career by season

Kendrick Bourne: snap share and target share by season0204060801002017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far34.036.04.7061%13.1%
2025182.130.63.1055%8.8%
2024122.325.43.2158%10.2%
202384.650.86.9473%20.0%
2022162.227.13.0144%9.7%
2021183.448.74.3752%13.5%
2020153.344.54.9266%13.7%
2019191.923.52.8642%10.6%
2018162.630.44.2457%12.8%
2017111.523.43.1037%8.6%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Kendrick Bourne sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the ARI room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Arizona Cardinals roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4