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Luke Schoonmaker

Dallas Cowboys · Tight endTE3

Over 17 games last season Luke Schoonmaker averaged 0.8 receptions and 8 yards on 33% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.7
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
7
Anytime TD
7%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

58%026%110%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.7 projected
26 wk3BAL22%2.5%11900.7 +0.3
26 wk2WAS29%0.0%0000—
26 wk1NYG22%3.3%11120—
25 wk18NYG29%4.3%11120—
25 wk17WAS46%5.6%22150—
25 wk16LAC26%0.0%0000—
25 wk15MIN30%2.9%11290—
25 wk14DET21%4.3%21120—
25 wk13KC32%2.7%1110—
25 wk12PHI31%2.9%1000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 190%
5+ receptions0 of 190%
7+ receptions0 of 190%
50+ receiving yards0 of 190%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown0 of 190%

Career by season

Luke Schoonmaker: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.77.00.7024%1.9%
2025170.87.81.4033%3.8%
2024171.614.22.1134%5.3%
2023180.54.00.9231%2.4%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Dallas Cowboys roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4