Malachi Corley

Cleveland Browns · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 13 games last season Malachi Corley averaged 0.8 receptions and 6 yards on 25% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.3

0.6 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

-0

Anytime TD

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.3 projected
26 wk3	CAR	1%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.7 -0.7
26 wk2	TB	—	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	JAX	—	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	CIN	42%	9.5%	2	2	20	3	18	0	—
25 wk17	PIT	38%	4.3%	1	1	4	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	BUF	45%	14.8%	4	2	11	3	30	0	—
25 wk15	CHI	26%	3.2%	1	1	10	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	TEN	6%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	2	0	—
25 wk13	SF	37%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	9	0	—
25 wk12	LV	25%	5.6%	1	1	8	1	-6	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 15	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 15	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 15	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 15	0%
Scored a touchdown	0 of 15	0%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1%	0.0%
2025	13	0.8	6.1	1.1	1.0	9.8	25%	4.6%
2024	7	0.4	2.3	0.9	0.3	3.7	19%	2.6%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Cleveland Browns roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4