Malik Nabers has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 3 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
3.6
0.9 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
44
Anytime TD
20%
red-zone role (+0.07)
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.6 projected
26 wk3
TEN
78%
28.6%
6
5
26
0
3.4 +1.6
26 wk2
LA
74%
12.5%
4
1
1
0
—
26 wk1
DAL
52%
31.0%
9
6
69
0
—
25 wk4
LAC
33%
15.0%
3
2
20
0
—
25 wk3
KC
92%
23.3%
7
2
13
0
—
25 wk2
DAL
99%
32.5%
13
9
167
2
—
25 wk1
WAS
94%
37.5%
12
5
71
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 6 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 6
50%
5+ receptions
3 of 6
50%
7+ receptions
1 of 6
17%
50+ receiving yards
3 of 6
50%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 6
17%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 6
17%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 6
17%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
4.0
32.0
6.3
0
68%
24.0%
2025
4
4.5
67.8
8.8
2
80%
27.1%
2024
15
7.3
80.3
11.3
7
91%
35.7%
3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016