Malik Washington

Miami Dolphins · Wide receiverWR1

Over 17 games last season Malik Washington averaged 2.7 receptions and 19 yards on 57% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.5

0.8 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

15%

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.5 projected
26 wk3	KC	86%	28.6%	10	5	56	2	5	0	3.8 +1.2
26 wk2	SF	73%	21.7%	5	4	43	1	4	0	—
26 wk1	LV	98%	29.6%	8	3	53	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	NE	70%	16.7%	4	3	6	2	22	1	—
25 wk17	TB	64%	13.6%	3	1	4	1	1	0	—
25 wk16	CIN	53%	3.4%	1	1	23	1	9	1	—
25 wk15	PIT	56%	3.8%	1	1	10	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	NYJ	52%	19.0%	4	3	10	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	NO	60%	25.0%	5	4	30	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	WAS	50%	15.0%	3	3	42	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	12 of 19	63%
5+ receptions	1 of 19	5%
7+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 19	21%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.0	50.7	7.7	1.0	3.0	0	86%	26.6%
2025	17	2.7	18.6	3.8	1.0	6.5	4	57%	14.4%
2024	14	1.9	15.9	2.6	0.4	1.8	1	45%	8.0%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Malik Washington sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the MIA room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Miami Dolphins roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4