Mark Andrews

Baltimore Ravens · Tight endTE1

Over 17 games last season Mark Andrews averaged 2.8 receptions and 25 yards on 62% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.4

0.5 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

24%

third-down role (+0.05)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.4 projected
26 wk3	DAL	52%	25.0%	5	3	24	0	0	0	3.5 -0.5
26 wk2	NO	71%	24.1%	7	6	49	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	IND	72%	25.0%	6	4	49	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	PIT	59%	17.6%	3	2	14	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	GB	41%	20.0%	4	4	28	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	NE	44%	15.0%	3	2	21	1	3	0	—
25 wk15	CIN	41%	25.0%	3	2	18	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	PIT	68%	15.2%	5	1	9	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	CIN	68%	20.0%	6	4	47	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	NYJ	67%	15.0%	3	1	9	2	2	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	10 of 19	53%
5+ receptions	3 of 19	16%
7+ receptions	1 of 19	5%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 19	21%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.3	40.7	6.0	0	65%	24.7%
2025	17	2.8	24.8	4.1	6	62%	17.1%
2024	19	3.3	40.1	4.2	11	62%	15.7%
2023	11	4.3	50.8	5.7	6	66%	20.0%
2022	16	4.9	57.5	7.7	5	84%	29.2%
2021	17	6.3	80.1	9.0	9	76%	25.8%
2020	16	4.1	48.1	6.6	7	66%	25.3%
2019	16	4.2	55.7	6.6	10	44%	24.0%
2018	17	2.2	34.3	3.4	3	35%	10.8%

9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Mark Andrews sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the BAL room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Baltimore Ravens roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4