Marvin Harrison Jr.

Arizona Cardinals · Wide receiverWR3

Over 12 games last season Marvin Harrison Jr. averaged 3.4 receptions and 51 yards on 71% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.5

0.9 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.5 projected
26 wk3	SF	77%	10.0%	5	3	40	0	2.2 +0.8
26 wk2	SEA	74%	3.8%	1	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	LAC	79%	8.1%	3	1	33	0	—
25 wk17	CIN	33%	2.9%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	ATL	51%	10.3%	3	1	14	0	—
25 wk13	TB	61%	18.9%	7	6	69	0	—
25 wk10	SEA	91%	27.3%	12	3	33	1	—
25 wk9	DAL	72%	34.5%	10	7	96	1	—
25 wk7	GB	86%	17.6%	6	2	58	0	—
25 wk6	IND	23%	5.1%	2	2	32	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	7 of 14	50%
5+ receptions	4 of 14	29%
7+ receptions	1 of 14	7%
50+ receiving yards	6 of 14	43%
75+ receiving yards	2 of 14	14%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 14	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 14	29%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.3	24.3	3.0	0	77%	7.3%
2025	12	3.4	50.7	6.1	4	71%	18.1%
2024	17	3.6	52.1	6.8	8	79%	22.6%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Arizona Cardinals roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4