Slate Stats › NFL › Players

MM

Michael Mayer

Las Vegas Raiders · Tight endTE2

Over 13 games last season Michael Mayer averaged 2.7 receptions and 25 yards on 62% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.7
1.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
35
Anytime TD
25%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

5%012%117%218%316%412%58%65%73%8910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————3.7 projected
26 wk3NO87%10.0%333213.6 -0.6
26 wk2LAC84%13.8%43230—
26 wk1MIA81%24.1%76320—
25 wk18KC95%19.2%53470—
25 wk17NYG93%35.7%109890—
25 wk16HOU67%13.6%31100—
25 wk15PHI19%0.0%0000—
25 wk12CLE16%2.4%11140—
25 wk11DAL77%10.3%43130—
25 wk10DEN62%16.0%43220—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions9 of 1560%
5+ receptions3 of 1520%
7+ receptions1 of 157%
50+ receiving yards2 of 1513%
75+ receiving yards1 of 157%
100+ receiving yards0 of 150%
Scored a touchdown1 of 157%

Career by season

Michael Mayer: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far34.029.04.7184%16.0%
2025132.725.23.8162%13.7%
2024111.914.22.9063%8.1%
2023141.921.72.9271%9.3%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Michael Mayer sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the LV room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Las Vegas Raiders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4