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Najee Harris

New York Giants · Running backRB2

Najee Harris has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 2 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.4
0.6 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
0
Rush attempts
7.0
Rushing yards
32
Anytime TD
23%

What a realistic week looks like

71%020%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.4 projected
26 wk3TEN22%0.0%00095200.7 -0.7
26 wk2LA14%0.0%000460—
25 wk3DEN13%0.0%0006280—
25 wk2LV34%7.4%22208280—
25 wk1KC18%2.9%115150—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 4 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 40%
5+ receptions0 of 40%
7+ receptions0 of 40%
50+ receiving yards0 of 40%
75+ receiving yards0 of 40%
100+ receiving yards0 of 40%
Scored a touchdown0 of 40%

Career by season

Najee Harris: snap share and target share by season020406080100202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far20.00.00.06.529.0018%0.0%
202531.08.31.05.020.3022%3.4%
2024182.218.02.814.958.9650%9.9%
2023181.710.32.314.859.6853%8.2%
2022172.413.53.116.060.81066%9.0%
2021184.225.95.317.768.31082%13.7%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New York Giants roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4