Odell Beckham Jr. has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 3 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
0.4
Receiving yards
7
Anytime TD
1%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.4 projected
26 wk3
TEN
9%
4.8%
1
0
0
0
0.6 -0.6
26 wk2
LA
5%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
DAL
16%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0
10%
1.6%
2024
9
1.0
6.1
2.0
0
20%
6.2%
2023
16
2.4
37.4
4.4
3
49%
15.2%
2021
18
3.6
45.8
6.0
7
71%
18.2%
2020
7
3.3
45.6
6.1
4
68%
22.0%
2019
16
4.6
64.7
8.3
4
95%
25.6%
2018
12
6.4
87.7
10.3
6
94%
28.8%
2017
4
6.2
75.5
10.2
3
76%
24.0%
2016
17
6.2
82.1
10.6
10
95%
28.4%
9 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016