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Ollie Gordon II

Miami Dolphins · Running backRB2

Over 17 games last season Ollie Gordon II averaged 0.4 receptions and 2 yards on 22% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.0
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
4
Rush attempts
5.8
Rushing yards
27
Anytime TD
24%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

44%030%115%27%345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————1.0 projected
26 wk3KC84%8.6%3314174110.1 +3.0
26 wk2SF19%0.0%000370—
26 wk1LV7%0.0%000000—
25 wk18NE36%4.2%112990—
25 wk17TB15%0.0%000000—
25 wk16CIN5%0.0%0001-10—
25 wk15PIT12%0.0%000200—
25 wk14NYJ25%0.0%0005171—
25 wk13NO27%0.0%0003100—
25 wk11WAS39%0.0%0009451—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 190%
5+ receptions0 of 190%
7+ receptions0 of 190%
50+ receiving yards0 of 190%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown4 of 1921%

Career by season

Ollie Gordon II: snap share and target share by season02040608010020252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.04.71.06.716.0137%2.9%
2025170.41.90.54.111.7422%1.8%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Ollie Gordon II sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the MIA room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Miami Dolphins roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4