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Parker Washington

Jacksonville Jaguars · Wide receiverWR1

Over 17 games last season Parker Washington averaged 3.8 receptions and 56 yards on 62% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
4.5
0.7 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
62
Anytime TD
32%
third-down role (+0.05)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

2%07%113%216%316%414%511%68%75%83%92%10111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————4.5 projected
26 wk3NE81%18.5%53400014.2 -1.2
26 wk2DEN81%42.9%12798000—
26 wk1CLE61%28.6%6583001—
25 wk19BUF71%40.0%127107221—
25 wk18TEN74%29.0%9587001—
25 wk17IND81%27.0%1081151-50—
25 wk16DEN56%28.6%106145001—
25 wk15NYJ45%10.7%3353000—
25 wk13TEN38%12.0%3126000—
25 wk12ARI84%23.3%7571001—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions13 of 1968%
5+ receptions9 of 1947%
7+ receptions4 of 1921%
50+ receiving yards11 of 1958%
75+ receiving yards8 of 1942%
100+ receiving yards3 of 1916%
Scored a touchdown7 of 1937%

Career by season

Parker Washington: snap share and target share by season0204060801002023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far35.073.77.7274%30.0%
2025173.856.16.3662%19.3%
2024171.922.93.0355%9.0%
202391.814.72.3239%5.7%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Parker Washington sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the JAX room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Jacksonville Jaguars roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4