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Patrick Ricard

New York Giants · Running backRB depth

Over 11 games last season Patrick Ricard averaged 0.1 receptions and 1 yards on 41% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.3
0.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
3
Anytime TD
11%

What a realistic week looks like

76%018%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.3 projected
26 wk3TEN47%0.0%00000.4 -0.4
26 wk2LA31%0.0%0000—
26 wk1DAL54%3.4%1000—
25 wk18PIT51%5.9%1180—
25 wk17GB57%0.0%0000—
25 wk16NE58%0.0%0000—
25 wk15CIN44%0.0%0000—
25 wk14PIT36%3.0%1000—
25 wk13CIN18%0.0%0000—
25 wk12NYJ38%0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 130%
5+ receptions0 of 130%
7+ receptions0 of 130%
50+ receiving yards0 of 130%
75+ receiving yards0 of 130%
100+ receiving yards0 of 130%
Scored a touchdown0 of 130%

Career by season

Patrick Ricard: snap share and target share by season0204060801002017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.00.00.3044%1.1%
2025110.10.70.2041%0.8%
2024190.21.20.3140%1.0%
2023190.32.70.4140%1.5%
2022180.64.10.8065%3.2%
2021130.64.81.0157%2.9%
2020111.27.51.510%6.1%
2019170.52.80.6130%2.6%
201870.00.00.000%0.0%
201760.72.00.720%2.1%

10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole New York Giants roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4